United States Geological Survey - Topographical Maps, Louisiana (1995)
The federal government fulfills its responsibility to provide the State of Louisiana with the technical information needed for intelligent land use development. The large areas below sea level are clearly marked with blue icons. ![]() Everyone who chooses to live here or to invest in property here has ample information to understand the deliberate risk that they are taking. They are living in a bowl several feet below sea level almost completely surrounded by a lake, a river, and the Gulf of Mexico. They are defended by an aging system of pipes and pumps that cannot accommodate the full force of a major hurricane. Their survival to date is the result of probabalistic luck, which could run out at any time. They choose to gamble. Their choice, their responsibility. Louisiana State University Research (2001)
Researchers at Louisiana State University model the effects of a hurricane for the US Army Corps of Engineers. ![]() City of New Orleans Emergency Preparedness Plan - ANNEX I: HURRICANES
The City of New Orleans develops an emergency preparedness plan. ,,,The Hurricane Emergency Evacuation Standard Operating Procedure is designed to deal with all case scenarios of an evacuation in response to the approach of a major hurricane towards New Orleans. It is designed to deal with the anticipation of a direct hit from a major hurricane. This includes identifying the city’s present population, its projected population, identification of at-risk populations (those living outside levee protection or in storm-surge areas, floodplains, mobile homes, etc.)... Scientific American - Drowning New Orleans (2001)
Scientific American documents the inevitability of disaster and quotes the then-current New Orleans emergency preparedness official: The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big, slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under 20 feet of water. "As the water recedes," says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find a lot of dead bodies."....New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh--an area the size of Manhattan--will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at Louisiana State University (L.S.U.), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers, predict that more than 100,000 people could die. The body bags wouldn't go very far. Gambit Weekly (January, 2002)
Nagin is a candidate for Mayor of New Orleans and the local paper describes the nature of the city: New Orleans is being choked by grinding poverty, chronic budget deficits, blighted housing and, above all, Third World politics. Businesses are fleeing. Our children and grandchildren are leaving in droves for brighter futures in other cities. Our people have lost hope....New Orleans needs jobs. We need a real economic boost -- not just the traditional changing of the hogs at the public trough. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(Saturday, August 27, 2005 early) Again the federal government fulfills its responsibility to provide weather and atmospheric data to the officials of the State of Louisiana and the City of New Orleans so that they can make timely preparations for the safety of their citizens. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides complete current data and predicts the path of the storm. ![]() MetaFilter (Saturday, August 27 at 6:21 PM)
MetaFilter thread is started with this post full of relevant links: Katrina targets New Orleans. Mandatory evacuations have been declared, and contraflow evacuation routes are in effect near New Orleans, as Hurricane Katrina, a very wet, drenching hurricane, approaches the city from the Gulf of Mexico, where it is gaining in size and strength, with an estimated 45% chance of making landfall as a category 4 or 5 hurricane. The computer models suggest that New Orleans will sustain a direct hit from Katrina, which could be "The Big One" warned about by experts, capable of flooding the city, polluting it with industrial waste, and even flooding the pump stations, leaving it incapable of pumping out the water. The hurricane is predicted to make landfall early Monday near Port Fourchon, which handles approximately 13% of U.S. oil imports, and 27% of U.S. domestic production. The long string of comments following the post reveals that almost all of those using this discussion forum were more on the ball than Blanco and Nagin. One user suggested on Saturday that city officials should commandeer the hundreds of parish school buses to evacuate the city. Several people have observed that everyone, adults included, could have just waited at the corner of all the regular parish school bus routes and been easily evacuated. National Weather Service (Sunday, August 28 at 2, 5, & 8 AM)
National weather service updates paint an increasingly grim picture of the coming danger. The magnitude of the coming disaster is explicitly described. There is no room for optimism or misunderstanding. To fail to act in the face of these reports, coming every hour on the hour, with detailed updates (see below) every three hours, getting worse and worse, seems unthinkable. 2 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF HURRICANE KATRINA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 125 KT AT THE SURFACE....IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND PERHAPS EVEN REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 KATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND GROW LARGER....ADDITIONALLY...THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE AGAIN BEEN EXPANDED....DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND SIZE FORECASTS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED BOTH EAST AND WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT KATRINA COULD APPROACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL....KATRINA WILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. 8 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 153 KNOTS...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 140 KNOTS....KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. There is a whole series of these, which you can read in the archives. This is just a representative slice from early Sunday morning, which should be enough to compel evacuation of New Orleans. And the "Preparedness Plan" gives the officials the authority to compel their citizens to board school buses and be taken out of town. Lincoln Journal Star (Sunday, August 28)
President Bush calls Governor Blanco and urges her to evacuate the endangered areas. Publicly, he urges all those living in the path of the hurricane to put their personal safety ahead of all other concerns. He even takes the unprecedented step of declaring states in the path of the oncoming storm federal disaster areas ahead of time. CRAWFORD, Texas -- President Bush, as he readied the federal government for a massive relief effort, on Sunday urged people in the path of Hurricane Katrina to forget anything but their safety and move to higher ground as instructed. National Weather Service (Sunday, August 28 at 7 PM)
Up until now, the discussion centers around whether the pumps will continue to function and whether the levees will hold. Now for the first time the national weather service warns that the storm surge will overtop the levees. 7 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS EVENING. ...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE....KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER... COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
(Sunday, August 28 at 10 PM) The eye of the storm is still off the coast and the federal government again fulfills its responsibility. NOAA supplies Louisiana state and New Orleans city officials with updated information predicting the path of the hurricane. ![]() 10 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.... ...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DETERIORATING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE....KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT EITHER CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED.... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST....ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... New Orleans mayor orders evacuation (Sunday, August 28 at 10:48 PM)
In the face of a catastrophic Hurricane Katrina, a mandatory evacuation is ordered for New Orleans by Mayor Ray Nagin, but is not compelled. School and metro buses are not mobilized as provided for in the Emergency Preparedness Plan. Clearly, Mayor Nagin understands what is going to happen. In an interview with CNN he described the expected result:
The city is below sea level in what amounts to a bowl that could be a death trap for any residents who chose to try to ride out the storm....In a worst case scenario, some estimates place the death toll from a direct hit in the tens of thousands....If the surge were to breach the city’s levee system, the water could rise to as high as 20 feet in places, Mayor Ray Nagin told CNN Sunday....That much water would overwhelm the city’s pump system and could take weeks to remove, Nagin said.So, he knows the storm and the storm surge are coming, he understands what will happen, and what does he do? Does he go to battle stations at once, as he should? Ask the governor to deploy the Louisiana National Guard, 1,500 of whom are not in Iraq and are immediately available? The Louisiana National Guard is on alert, but thousands of guard troops from the state are now serving in Iraq....Nagin said 1,500 troops are immediately available, however, and another 2,500 have been mobilized.Noooo..... The Louisiana Guardsmen just sit there waiting, and strangely, Mayor Nagin fails to use his emergency preparedness plan authority to commandeer the hundreds of New Orleans parish school buses and 364 New Orleans Regional Transit Authority buses and bring them to high ground. They could be used to evacuate those residents who do not have access to automobile transportation. Once the flood waters arrive, the buses can no longer be salvaged. Some of the resources the mayor could have used to evacuate people with are shown in this Yahoo! News photo: ![]() (Monday, August 29 at 6:10 a.m. CDT)
Katrina makes landfall, and federal officials continue to warn of danger. Katrina Floods New Orleans, Gulf Coast Aug 29 01:33 PM US/Eastern By ADAM NOSSITER LA Times (Tuesday morning)
Some pumps begin to fail, and the first two levees break. Eastern evacuation routes are washed out. New Orleans -- On Monday, Katrina dealt this city a glancing blow, making landfall nearby. Winds of more than 100 mph lashed the city, broke windows and caused many streets to flood.It should be noted that Katrina dealt the city of New Orleans a "glancing blow" due to a last-minute change in course. If it had been the direct hit the federal government had been warning them about for days, everyone in the city would have died at once. But after landfall, they still had a couple of days to save themselves. And still they just sat there. Many even began congratulating themselves on another "miss." CNN (Tuesday night)
Nagin blames others for the desparate situation in New Orleans resulting from his complete failure to perform his mayoral duty and implement the emergency preparedness plan. He begins to swear. A day after Hurricane Katrina dealt a devastating blow to the Big Easy, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin on Tuesday night blasted what he called a lack of coordination in relief efforts for setting behind the city's recovery.
(Wednesday, August 31 8:30 AM)
First a pump near the 17th Street levee fails. Then water from Lake Pontchartrain begins flowing through a 500-foot breach in the 17th Street Canal. Two breeches open in the Florida Street levee and water from the Mississippi River pours through (picture). In no time water from the lake, the river, and the canals is mingling throughout the drowning city. WWL TV (Wednesday, August 31 at 8:04 PM)
In the face of looting, rape, and murder, Nagin finally declares martial law with respect to Miranda rights, but not "shoot to kill". Disgusted and furious with the lawlessness of looters who have put fear into citizens, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin declared Martial Law in the city and directed the city's 1,500 person police force to do "whatever it takes" to regain control of the city. Louisiana Gannett News (Thursday, September 1)
Three-and-one-half dreadful days later, Governor Blanco finally uses her emergency authority to commandeer school buses to rescue the flood victims, after the city has been in total anarchy for days and dead bodies are piling up in the streets. Many parishes have already lost their school bus fleet, due to failure to make timely transfers of the much needed buses to high ground. Notice that at this point she is just initiating the call for a bus inventory. It will be a while before the request is implemented. Gov. Kathleen Blanco has issued an order requisitioning school buses throughout the state to help evacuate people from New Orleans. (Thursday night)
Mayor Ray Nagin ramps up the invective and poor grammar in an on-air interview with radio station WWL-AM in New Orleans. NAGIN: I told him we had an incredible crisis here and that his flying over in Air Force One does not do it justice. And that I have been all around this city, and I am very frustrated because we are not able to marshal resources and we're outmanned in just about every respect. Very early Friday morning
Moonbats begin blaming management failures of Blanco and Nagin on Bush. Continuing
Other commentaries about this "blame and responsibility" issue: Bill Hobbs -- Grassroots Journalism From Nashville The New Libertarian: A Journal of Neolibertarian Thought |
© Rudy Bickel and Nancy Matthis 2005





